Swiss Medical Weekly

Background: The increasing availability of routinely collected health data offers new opportunities for population-level research, yet access to comprehensive, linked, and standardised datasets remains limited. We describe EST-Health-30, a large-scale, population-representative health data resource from Estonia. Methods: EST-Health-30 comprises a random 30% sample of the Estonian population (~500,000 individuals), with longitudinal data from 2012 to 2024 and annual updates planned through 2026. Individual-level records are linked across five nationwide databases, including electronic health records, health insurance claims, prescription data, cancer registry, and cause of death records. A privacy-preserving hashing approach ensures consistent cohort inclusion over time while maintaining pseudonymisation. All data are harmonised to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model (version 5.4) using international standard vocabularies. Data quality was assessed using established OMOP-based validation frameworks. Results: The dataset contains rich multimodal information on diagnoses, procedures, laboratory measurements, prescriptions, free-text clinical notes, healthcare utilisation, and costs, with high population coverage and longitudinal depth. Data quality assessment showed high completeness and consistency, with 99.2% of applicable checks passing. The age-sex distribution closely reflects the national population, supporting representativeness, though coverage is marginally below the target 30% (29.2%), primarily attributable to recent immigrants without health system contact. The dataset enables construction of detailed clinical cohorts, analysis of disease trajectories, and evaluation of healthcare utilisation and outcomes across the life course. Conclusions: EST-Health-30 is a comprehensive, standardised, and population-representative real-world data resource that supports epidemiological, clinical, and methodological research. Its alignment with the OMOP CDM facilitates reproducible analytics and participation in international federated research networks, while secure access infrastructure ensures compliance with data protection regulations.

In dense urban settings, delays between diagnostic sampling and effective isolation can sustain transmission during peak infectiousness. We define a waiting-window transmission externality arising when infectious individuals remain mobile while awaiting results, formalized as E = N{middle dot}P{middle dot}TR{middle dot}D, where N is daily testing volume, P test positivity, TR transmission during the waiting period, and D turnaround time. Using Monte Carlo simulation and a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) framework, we quantify excess infections per 1,000 tests/day under multiple diagnostic workflows. A surge scenario incorporates positive coupling between TR and D ({rho} = 0.45), reflecting co-occurrence of laboratory saturation and elevated contacts during system stress. Under centralized 48-hour workflows, excess infections reach [~]80 at P = 10% and [~]401 at P = 50%, increasing to [~]628 under surge conditions. In contrast, near-patient rapid testing and home sampling reduce this to [~]5 and [~]25-26, respectively. Workflows that eliminate the waiting window--either through immediate isolation at sampling or through home-based PCR that returns results at the point of collection--effectively collapse the transmission term. These findings identify diagnostic delay as a modifiable driver of epidemic dynamics. Operational redesign of testing workflows, including decentralized sampling and home-based molecular diagnostics, offers a scalable pathway to improve epidemic controllability and reduce inequities in dense urban environments.

Background: Since September 2024, France has implemented a national reform allowing prescription-free access (PFA) to sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening in medical biological laboratories (MBLs). This study aims to characterize the populations undergoing STI testing according to their access modality and evaluate the probability of test positivity in relation to testing pathway, sex, and age groups. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of all individuals screened for Chlamydia trachomatis, Gonorrhoea, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and syphilis by treponemal-specific immunoassay (TSI) in Cerballiance MBLs between Mars 2025 and February 2026. Multivariable logistic regression models stratified by sex and adjusted for age and region assessed associations between screening modality and STI positivity. Results: Among 1,008,737 individuals included, 27.8% were under PFA and 72.2 under prescription-based access (PBA). PFA users were more frequently male (47.4% vs. 36.3%, p<0.001) and aged 20-39 years (34.0%, p<0.001). Overall positivity rates differed by modality: PFA was associated with higher detection of Chlamydia (4.6% vs. 3.6%). PBA group showed more positive cases of syphilis (3.4% vs. 1.2%), HBV (1.3% vs. 0.4%), and HIV infections (0.3% vs. 0.2%, all p<0.001). Co-infection and gonorrhoea proportions did not significantly differ between modalities. Conclusions: PFA substantially increased STI screening uptake, particularly among young adults and men, and enhanced detection of bacterial STIs. PBA remains essential for diagnosing viral and chronic infections. These findings highlight the complementary roles of both access strategies and support PFA screening as an effective public health intervention to broaden STI detection and reduce transmission.

Knowing the mortality rates associated with infection by a pathogen is essential for effective preparedness and response. Here, harnessing the flexibility of a Bayesian approach, we produce an estimate of the Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) for A(H5N1) conditional on explicit assumptions, and quantify the uncertainty thereof. We also apply the method to first-wave COVID-19 data up to March 2020, demonstrating the estimates that could be obtained were the model available then. Our analysis uses World Development Indicators (WDI) from the World Bank, the A(H5N1) WHO confirmed cases and deaths tracker by country (2003-2024), and COVID-19 cases and deaths data from John Hopkins University (January and February 2020). Since infectious disease dynamics are typically influenced by local socio-economic factors rather than political borders, individual countries are placed within clusters of countries sharing similar WDIs relevant to respiratory viral diseases, with clusters derived by performing Hierarchical Clustering. To estimate the IFR, we fit a Negative Binomial Bayesian Hierarchical Model for A(H5N1) and COVID-19 separately. We explicitly modelled key unobserved parameters with informative priors from expert opinion and literature. By modelling underreporting, our analysis suggests lower fatality (15.3%) compared to WHO's Case Fatality Ratio estimate (54%) on lab-confirmed cases. However, credible intervals are wide ([0.5%, 64.2%] 95% CrI). Therefore, good preparedness for a potential A(H5N1) pandemic implies adopting scenario planning under our central estimate, as well as for IFRs as high as 70%. Our approach also returns a COVID-19 IFR estimate of 2.8% with [2.5%, 3.1%] 95% CrI which is consistent with literature.

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection has shown marked temporal variation across epidemic waves, driven by a combination of waning immunity and immune escape by emerging variants. Test-negative case-control designs have been central to VE monitoring, but they operate at a population level and provide limited insight into the underlying immune mechanisms. In parallel, longitudinal serological studies have characterised antibody trajectories after vaccination and infection, and quantitative models have linked neutralising antibody levels to protection against infection and severe disease. These two streams of evidence are usually analysed separately. We propose a Bayesian joint model that links individual-level antibody kinetics to test-negative VE estimates across successive epidemic waves. The model represents hybrid immunity as the combined effect of vaccination and documented or undocumented infection, with antibody titres following a boost-and-decay process after each immunising event. A titre-protection curve maps latent antibody levels to the risk of symptomatic infection with each variant, extending the correlates-of-protection framework. This allows us to decompose observed VE into contributions from waning, immune escape, and differences in exposure. Using simulated data calibrated on realistic vaccination schedules, infection histories and assay performance, we show that the joint model can recover the underlying titre-protection relationship and separate variant-specific immune escape from pure waning. In scenarios with hybrid immunity, the model captures higher and more durable titres, consistent with empirical observations. When applied to test-negative surveillance data enriched with nested serology, the approach yields VE trajectories that are more interpretable and more stable across time than conventional analyses. This framework provides a coherent way to combine serology and VE to quantify hybrid immunity, and offers practical summary measures for comparing vaccine strategies in the presence of evolving variants.

BackgroundAn upsurge in Streptococcus pyogenes infections 2022-2023 highlighted potential benefits of point-of-care tests (POCT) to support clinical pathways, prevent outbreaks, and optimise antibiotic use. ObjectivesWe conducted a pilot research study in a west London paediatric emergency department (ED) to determine whether a molecular POCT had potential to alter management in children who were also having a conventional throat swab taken for culture. MethodsChildren <16 years presenting to ED who had a throat swab requested by a clinician were invited to have a second swab taken for research purposes only. Clinical management was unaffected by the research swab result, which was processed using a molecular POCT that was not approved for use in the host NHS Trust. ResultsPrevalence of streptococcal infection was low during the study (May 2023-June 2025); swab positivity in symptomatic children was 12.8% (6/47). Overall, 38/49 (77.6%) participants who had throat swabs received antibiotics. Of those children recommended to receive antibiotics, 29/38 (76.3%) had a negative POCT. Mean time to reporting of positive throat swab culture results was 3.67 days (range 3-5 days) leading to occasional delay in treatment, although POCT identified positive results within minutes. ConclusionAntibiotic use was frequent and could be avoided or stopped by use of a rule out POCT in over three-quarters of children in the ED, if suspicion of S. pyogenes is the main driver for prescribing. POCT were easy to process and produced immediate results compared with culture, in theory enabling timely decision-making and avoiding treatment delay.

Understanding the dynamics of HIV epidemics is important to control them effectively. Classical methods that mainly rely on occurrence data are limited by the fact that an unknown part of the epidemic eludes sampling. Since the early 2000s, phylodynamic methods have enabled the estimation of key epidemiological parameters from virus genetic sequence data. These methods have the advantage of being less sensitive to partial sampling and to provide insights about epidemic history that even predates the first samples. In this study, we analysed 2,205 HIV sequences from the French ANRS PRIMO C06 cohort. We identified and were able to reconstruct the temporal dynamics of two large clades that represent the HIV-1 epidemics in the country. Using Bayesian phylodynamic inference models, we found that the first clade, from subtype B, originated in the end of 1970s, grew rapidly during the 80s before decreasing from 2000 to 2015 and stagnating since then. The second clade, from circulating recombinant form CRF02_AG, emerged and spread in the 80s, grew again in the early 2000s, before declining slightly. We also estimated key epidemiological parameters associated with each clade. Finally, using numerical simulations, we investigated prospective scenarios and assessed the possibility to meet the 2030 UNAIDS targets. This is one of the rare studies to analyse the HIV epidemic in France using molecular epidemiology methods. It highlights the value of routine HIV sequence data for studying past epidemic trends or designing public health policies.

Background Individuals experiencing or at risk of homelessness face substantial barriers to preventive eye care that are poorly addressed by standard service models. Interdisciplinary optometry-social work collaboration offers a rights-based approach to improving engagement and continuity of care. Methods A convergent mixed-methods study was conducted between February and August 2024 at a multidisciplinary community centre. Clients experiencing or at risk of homelessness received integrated optometry and social work assessment and were prioritised as high, medium, or low based on combined clinical and social risk. Social work follow-up was guided by the Triple Mandate and W-Questions framework. Quantitative data were summarised using mean (SD), median [IQR], or n (%). Qualitative case notes were analysed using content analysis with inductive coding and secondary review for consistency. Results A total of 165 clients had priority categories coded (high: 68; medium: 47; low: 154). Demographic data were available for 132 clients (60% male; mean age 49.5 years [SD 16]); 27% had not completed high school, 89% reported weekly income below AUD 1000, and 28% had vision impairment. Two hundred forty-five case-note entries were consolidated into 146 unique records. SMS (46%) and phone calls (38%) were the most documented contact methods, although only 21% of calls were answered; missed calls (13%) and disconnected numbers (7%) were common. Multi-modal contact was more frequently documented for higher-priority clients. Appointment assistance was the most recorded facilitator (71%), while rights-based supports, including interpreter and transport assistance, were infrequently documented (<=5%). Qualitative analysis identified unstable communication, reliance on informal supports, and service fragmentation as key influences on recall outcomes. Conclusion This study supports an interdisciplinary, rights-based optometry-social work model to address barriers to preventive eye care among people experiencing or at risk of homelessness. Embedding structured handovers and tiered recall processes within community-based services may strengthen continuity and accountability for high-priority clients. Future implementation should evaluate outcomes related to equity of reach, service integration, and sustained engagement in care.

Socioeconomic inequalities in health and well-being are a major public health concern, particularly in ageing populations. Education is a key determinant shaping multiple aspects of health outcomes. We used cross-sectional data from wave 9 of the German sample (n=4,148) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to test whether formal education is associated with well-being in later adulthood, with health literacy, self-rated health, and preventive health behaviours as possible mediators. Our results showed that education was positively associated with greater well-being, but only via indirect pathways. Specifically, self-rated health, health literacy, and fruit and vegetable consumption mediated the relationship between education and well-being accounting for 54.7, 24.7, and 12.6 percent of the total effect, respectively. In addition, there were significant positive correlations between education and health literacy, as well as high-intensity physical activity, daily fruit and vegetable consumption, more preventive health check-ups, and less smoking. In contrast, alcohol consumption was more common among those with higher levels of education. All health behaviours and health literacy were correlated directly or indirectly (i.e., mediated by health) with well-being. These findings highlight the importance of examining indirect pathways linking education to well-being in later life. Interventions aimed at improving health literacy and promoting healthy behaviours may help reduce educational inequalities in quality of life among older adults.

BackgroundAccess to safe, equitable, and affordable surgical and anesthesia care is critical to reducing the burden of surgical diseases in Africa. To understand the state of access in South Sudan, we conducted a baseline assessment of surgical services in Central Equatoria State (CES) in May 2024. ObjectivesThis study aimed to survey public healthcare facilities in CES capable of providing essential surgical services. We used the capacity to perform cesarean section, laparotomy, and open fracture management--Bellwether procedures--as a proxy for assessing workforce, infrastructure, financing, information management, and service delivery. MethodsWe used a validated and contextualized Surgical Assessment Tool developed by the Harvard Program on Global Surgery and Social Change and the World Health Organization. Data were collected at the facility level and summarized descriptively using percentages, means (standard deviations), medians (minimum, maximum), and visualized in graphs, charts, and tables. ResultsAll three public health facilities assessed could perform Bellwether procedures for their catchment populations. However, workforce availability, financing, and surgical infrastructure were major constraints. The surgical workforce density was 2.27 surgical, anesthesia, and obstetric specialists per 100,000 population. Specialized procedures--such as repair of cleft lip and palate, clubfoot, and hydrocephalus shunt--were unavailable at all sites. None had magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machines. The total average annual facility budget was $918,850, ranging from $3,960 to $800,000 at the teaching hospital--insufficient for proper operations. ConclusionWhile Bellwether procedures are routinely performed, access to quality and affordable care is compromised by deficits in workforce, financing, and infrastructure. We recommend that the Ministry of Health scale this survey nationally and develop a surgical policy and strategic plan focused on improving infrastructure, workforce, and financing for surgical and anesthesia care in South Sudan.

A multiplex diagnostic test is evaluated for self-reported long COVID associated persistent symptoms and a poor recovery from a SARS-CoV-2 infection. A mass-standardised concentration of total antibodies (AC), high-quality (HQ) antibodies and percentage of HQ antibodies (HQ%) is assessed against a spectrum of spike proteins to the SARS-CoV-2 variants: Wuhan, , {delta}, and the Omicron variants BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.2.75, BA.5, CH.1.1, BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5 in three cohorts. A cohort of control patients (n = 46) recovered (CC) and a cohort of self-declared long COVID patients (n = 113) (LCC). A nested Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis, performed for the variant with lowest HQ concentration in the spectrum, produced an area under the curve and AUC = 0.61 (0.53-0.70) for the CC vs LCC cohorts. For the LCC cohort, the cut-off thresholds for AC = 0.8 mg/L, HQ = 1.5 mg/L and HQ% of 34% were determined, leading to a 71% sensitivity and 66% specificity derived by the Youden metric. The cohorts may be fully classified based on ROC and outlier analysis to give an incidence of persistent virus 62% (95% CI 52% - 71%), hyperimmune 12% (95% CI 7% - 20%) and unclassified, 26% (95% CI 18% - 35%). The overall diagnostic accuracy for both the hyper and hypo immune is 69%. All clinical interventions can now be tailored for the heterogenous long COVID patient cohort.

Interpreting serological data remains challenging, particularly in low prevalence or cross reactive contexts, where antibody responses often show substantial overlap between exposed and unexposed individuals and may depart from normal distributional assumptions. Conventional cutoff based approaches often yield inconsistent or biased estimates of seroprevalence. Here, we present a decisional framework based on finite mixture models (FMMs) that enhances the robustness and interpretability of serological analyses. Beyond simply applying mixture models, our framework integrates multiple methodological innovations : (i) systematic comparison of Gaussian and skew normal mixture models to accommodate asymmetric antibody distributions; (ii) rigorous model selection using the Cramer von Mises test (p > 0.01) combined with a parsimonious score (APS) to prioritize models with well separated clusters; and (iii) hierarchical clustering of posterior probabilities to collapse latent components into biologically meaningful seronegative and seropositive groups. Applied to chikungunya virus (CHIKV) data from Bangladesh, the framework produced prevalence estimates consistent with ROC based methods while probabilistically identifying borderline cases. Validation on SARS CoV 2 and dengue datasets further demonstrated its generalizability: for SARS CoV 2, the approach identified up to five latent clusters with high sensitivity (up to 100%) and specificity (up to 100%), enabling discrimination by disease severity. For dengue, it revealed interpretable subgrouping consistent with background exposure and subclinical infection, despite limited confirmed cases. By integrating distributional flexibility, robust goodness of fit testing, and biologically guided cluster consolidation, this decisional FMM framework provides a reproducible and scalable method for serological interpretation across pathogens and epidemiological settings, addressing key limitations of threshold based classification.

Background: Lung cancer screening can reduce lung cancer mortality through early detection, but uptake of the NHS Targeted Lung Health Check (TLHC) programme remains low. Behaviourally informed invitation messages have been proposed as a low-cost approach to increase attendance, but evidence of their effectiveness in lung cancer screening is mixed. Few intervention studies used evidence-based behaviour change frameworks, and rarely tailored invitation strategies to empirically identified barriers and enablers. Methods: In an online experiment, 3,274 adults aged 55-74 years and with a history of smoking were randomised to see one of four behaviourally informed invitation messages or a control message. Participants then rated their intention to attend a TLHC appointment, and selected barriers and enablers to attending from a pre-defined list, which were classified according to the Theoretical Domains Framework. Invitation messages were mapped to Behaviour Change Techniques using the Theory and Techniques Tool. Message conditions were compared on intention to attend TLHC using bootstrapped ANOVA followed by pairwise comparisons. Exploratory counterfactual mediation analyses examined the role of fear in intention to attend. Results: Behaviourally informed invitation messages did not meaningfully increase intention to attend TLHC compared with the control message. While a GP-endorsed message showed a small potential benefit relative to the other conditions, this finding was not robust after adjustment for multiple comparisons. Participants most frequently reported barriers related to Emotion (particularly fear), Social Influence, and Knowledge, while Beliefs about Consequences emerged as the primary enabler of attendance. Only around half of reported barriers and enablers were addressed by the invitation messages. Exploratory analyses found that fear was associated with lower intention to attend a TLHC appointment, yet none of the behaviourally informed messages appeared to reduce fear compared to the control message. Conclusions: Improving lung cancer screening uptake will likely require invitation messages that directly address emotional concerns, particularly fear, alongside credible recommendations. These findings highlight the importance of systematically aligning invitation message content with empirically identified behavioural influences when designing scalable interventions to improve lung cancer screening uptake.

Drowning remains a major global public health challenge, yet how built environment characteristics shape population-level drowning risk remains poorly understood. This study linked satellite-derived built environment data to subnational drowning mortality estimates across 203 regions in 12 countries from 2006-2021. It found that built environment associations with drowning mortality are complex, non-linear, and shaped by development context. Urban extent was strongly protective, while built area near water showed protection overall but increased risk when combined with high population crowding. Almost all drowning mortality variance occurred between regions rather than within regions over time, indicating risk is predominantly determined by place-based characteristics. Income-stratified analyses revealed profound heterogeneity: crowding was protective in low-to middle-income settings but near-null in high-income regions, while waterfront development captured very different realities across contexts. These findings highlight the importance of tailoring drowning prevention strategies to local built environment configurations and development contexts.

Background Surgery is a widely used treatment option but the impact of surgery on long-term disease across socioeconomic groups is unknown. Methods Longitudinal population study using linked primary and secondary care data describing adults ([&ge;]18 years) in England recorded in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) between 1st January 2012 and 31st December 2021. Socioeconomic deprivation was defined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). The exposure was surgery and primary outcome was long-term disease. Data are presented as n (%), median (IQR), and adjusted hazards ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals. Findings Of 18,329,659 people, 8,951,145 (48.8%) underwent surgery. 78.6% of index surgeries were elective (n=7,032,475), 21.4% were emergency (n=1,918,670). Amongst surgical patients, 4,741,188 (52.0%) were women, 3,540,136 (39.6%) from the most deprived deciles (IMD 1-4) and 994,595 (11.1%) from a minority ethnic group. Age-standardised rates of surgery were higher in deprived individuals (comparative rate ratio IMD 1 vs. IMD 10 elective: 1.11 (95% CI 1.11-1.11), emergency: 1.54 (1.54-1.54)). Age at first surgery was 42 (27-60) years for elective and 42 (25-65) years for emergency surgery overall, but lower for people from IMD 1-4 (elective: 39 (26-57) years, emergency: 38 (24-60) years). Rates of long-term disease increased following both elective (baseline 19.6%, three years 24.5%) and emergency surgery (baseline 10.3%, three years 12.3%). Risk of new long-term disease following surgery increased with increasing levels of deprivation (IMD 1 vs. IMD 10 elective: HR 1.46 (1.45-1.48), emergency: HR 1.46 (1.44-1.48)). Interpretation Surgical treatment is strongly associated with the onset of long-term disease and factors which limit healthy life expectancy. Surgery occurs at a younger age among socioeconomically deprived groups and may be linked to health inequalities. Similar but more complex patterns of inequality were seen in minority ethnic groups. Funding Barts Charity and UK Academy of Medical Sciences.

BackgroundDrowning remains a major global public health challenge. This study examined whether the timing and trajectories of urbanisation--beyond the current built environment--are associated with subnational drowning mortality. MethodsWe linked satellite-derived measures of built-environment change (GHSL), population crowding (WorldPop), surface water exposure (JRC Global Surface Water), and infrastructure proxies (VIIRS/DMSP nighttime lights) to GBD 2021 drowning mortality estimates across 203 ADM1 regions in 12 countries (2006-2021; 3,248 region-year observations). Temporal predictors captured recent expansion, development "newness" ([&le;]10-year built share), acceleration/volatility, and a crowdingxgrowth interaction. We screened predictors using LASSO (10-fold cross-validation) and fitted mixed-effects models with region random intercepts. Distributed-lag models tested temporal precedence and development age, and income-stratified models assessed heterogeneity. ResultsAdding temporal predictors improved fit beyond contemporaneous built-environment measures ({Delta}AIC=177; {Delta}BIC=147). In adjusted models, crowdingxgrowth was strongly positively associated with drowning mortality, and a higher share of recent development was associated with higher mortality. Lag models showed a development age gradient: older built environment was most protective. Associations differed by income group, with several key coefficients reversing sign across strata. DiscussionDrowning mortality appears shaped by development histories as well as present-day conditions, with risk concentrated in rapidly changing, dense settings and the newest built environments. Cross-context heterogeneity suggests mechanisms and prevention priorities are unlikely to be uniform. ConclusionsDevelopment timing and trajectories help explain subnational drowning mortality beyond current built form alone. Prevention and planning should prioritise transition-period safety strategies in newly developing and rapidly densifying areas.

Background: Dengue remains a major public health challenge in Thailand despite decades of vector control implementation. While mathematical models have explored dengue transmission dynamics, systematic evaluation of current control strategies under realistic operational conditions remains limited. Methods: We developed a temperature-dependent, multi-serotype dengue transmission model that explicitly incorporates three primary vector control strategies: reduction in mosquito biting rates through personal protection measures, further reduction in mosquito birth rates beyond current larval control efforts, and further increase in adult mosquito mortality beyond current adulticide application levels. Using Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC), we fitted the model to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) surveillance data from nine province-year combinations representing high (Rayong), moderate (Ratchaburi), and low (Phrae) transmission settings across three years (2006, 2015, and 2017). The model accounts for four dengue serotypes, temperature-dependent mosquito dynamics, and temporary cross-protective immunity between serotypes. Results: The model closely reproduced observed monthly DHF case counts across all nine province-year combinations. Estimated reporting proportions ranged from 1.4% to 16.7%, with the highest values occurring in high-transmission provinces during the 2015 outbreak year. When each strategy was independently intensified by 50% relative to fitted baseline levels, reducing mosquito biting rates and increasing adult mosquito mortality consistently produced greater reductions in transmission than reducing mosquito birth rates. In the highest-transmission scenario (Rayong, 2015), a 50% reduction in biting rate from the baseline level yielded a 96.4% reduction in cumulative infections (95% CrI: 95.4-97.3%), compared with 94.3% (95% CrI: 91.8-95.6%) for a 50% increase in adult mosquito mortality and 77.0% (95% CrI: 58.6-84.6%) for a 50% reduction in mosquito birth rate. Analysis of the time-varying reproduction number (R_t) confirmed that interventions targeting adult mosquito-human contact achieved the greatest sustained epidemic suppression, although the relative ranking between bite prevention and adulticide application varied by epidemiological setting. Conclusions: Under the uniform 50% intensification scenario tested, interventions that directly disrupt adult mosquito-human contact, whether through personal protection or adulticide application, substantially outperformed larval control in reducing dengue transmission across diverse Thai settings. These findings support prioritizing personal protection and adulticide application, while the generalizability of this ranking to other intensification levels and settings warrants further investigation.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been important for controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, particularly before and during initial vaccine rollout. During the pandemic, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued isolation and masking guidance in case of COVID-19-like illness, a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, or known exposure to SARS-CoV-2. However, the impact of this guidance on mitigating transmission in office workplaces is unclear. We used a network-based mathematical model to estimate the impact of this guidance on SARS-CoV-2 transmission among office workers and their communities. The model represented social contacts in the home, office, and community. We used data from the CorporateMix study to parametrize social contacts among office workers and calibrated the model to represent the COVID-19 epidemic in Georgia, USA from January 2021 through August 2022. In the reference scenario (58% adherence to guidance among office workers and the broader population), workplace transmission accounted for a small fraction of total infections. Reducing adherence among office workers to 0% increased workplace transmissions by 27.1% and increasing adherence to 75% reduced workplace transmission by 7.0%. Increasing adherence to 75% among office workers had minimal impact on symptomatic cases and deaths; increasing it among the broader population was more effective in reducing office worker cases and deaths. In our model, moderate adherence to recommended NPIs in workplaces was effective in reducing transmission, but increasing adherence had limited benefit given workplaces that have low contact intensity and hybrid work arrangements. These results underscore the public health benefits of community-wide adoption of recommended NPIs.

BackgroundScrub typhus is a major yet neglected vector-borne disease in Thailand, where it has been nationally notifiable for over two decades. However, long-term changes in its epidemiology, including reporting rates, transmission intensity, disease severity, and seasonal patterns, have not been comprehensively characterised at the national level. MethodologyWe analysed 22 years of national surveillance data for scrub typhus in Thailand (2003-2024) using a latent process model that jointly fits reported cases with published nationwide seroprevalence data and antibody kinetics to estimate reporting rates and underlying transmission dynamics across all 77 provinces of Thailand. FindingsOver the 22-year study period, 143096 cases and 119 deaths were reported nationally. Estimated reporting proportion broadly mirrored transmission intensity, being higher in high-burden regions and lower elsewhere. A synchronous decline in detection was observed across all regions during the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by rapid rebound by 2024. After accounting for these reporting dynamics, the force of infection was highest in the northern provinces but also substantial in the northeast and south, with upward trends in some provinces. Susceptibility among older adults aged 65 and above increased progressively over the study period, reversing the pattern observed two decades earlier. Case-fatality in the 25-35-year reference group was low and declined from 0.14% (95% Credible Interval [CrI]: 0.06-0.29%) to 0.06% (95% CrI: 0.02-0.12%), but relative case-fatality remained consistently highest among adults above 65 across all periods. Three geographically distinct seasonal patterns were identified, all stable over time. ConclusionOver two decades, scrub typhus transmission in Thailand has been shown to extend well beyond its traditionally recognised northern focus, with substantial burden in previously underappreciated regions, while the demographic profile of those most affected has shifted progressively toward older adults. These findings support the need for regionally tailored surveillance, age-targeted clinical preparedness, and sustained investment in understanding the ecological drivers of transmission. Key messagesScrub typhus is a common but neglected cause of fever in Thailand, where it has been reported through the national surveillance system for over two decades. However, trends in reported cases can be misleading because they reflect not only true changes in transmission but also variation in diagnosis and reporting over time and across regions. We developed a model that combines surveillance data with seroprevalence surveys and antibody kinetics to separate true changes in transmission from variation in reporting, allowing us to estimate how transmission intensity, disease severity, and seasonal patterns have evolved from 2003 to 2024 across all 77 provinces. We found that substantial transmission occurs not only in the well-studied northern provinces but also in the northeast and south, where the disease has received less attention. Susceptibility has progressively shifted toward older adults, who also face the highest case-fatality, while three distinct seasonal patterns vary by region but have remained stable over time. These findings suggest that scrub typhus control in Thailand requires a shift from a predominantly northern focus toward regionally tailored strategies that account for local transmission timing, an ageing at-risk population, and the ecological drivers that sustain transmission in each setting.

Background Group A streptococcus (GAS) infections have been associated with neuropsychiatric disorders in epidemiologic studies and animal models, but data in US health care populations are limited. GAS is also associated with autoimmune sequelae, including acute rheumatic fever (ARF)/Sydenham chorea (SC), poststreptococcal reactive arthritis (PSRA), poststreptococcal glomerulonephritis (PSGN), and guttate psoriasis (GP). Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) has been linked to systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and multiple sclerosis (MS) and the complexity of these associations parallels that of GAS-associated conditions, providing a useful comparison. Objectives 1) Assess the association between a positive GAS test and incident neuropsychiatric diagnoses within 1 year in a large US health care database. 2) Assess the validity of the same database in detecting well-established disease associations while avoiding false associations. Design, Setting, Participants Retrospective cohort study using TriNetX data from US health care organizations. Patients with positive or negative tests were propensity score-matched (GAS cohort n=178,301; EBV cohort n=64,854). Patients with documented neuropsychiatric diagnoses prior to testing were excluded. To approximate a primary care population, inclusion required at least one well-visit. Exposures Positive vs negative GAS test; positive vs negative EBV test (separate cohorts). Main Outcomes and Validations Main outcome: incident neuropsychiatric diagnoses within 1 year of GAS testing. Positive control outcomes: ARF/SC, PSRA, PSGN, and GP (for GAS cohort); SLE and MS (for EBV cohort). Negative control outcomes: conditions without known association with GAS. Results After matching, a positive GAS test was associated with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) (RR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.03-1.15). Among established poststreptococcal conditions, only GP was associated with prior GAS (RR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.06-2.89). Case counts were insufficient to evaluate ARF/SC, PSRA, and PSGN. Negative control outcomes showed no association. In the EBV cohort, no association was observed with SLE, and MS showed a decreased risk. Conclusions and Relevance A positive GAS test was associated with ADHD but not with other neuropsychiatric disorders. The database detected poststreptococcal GP but did not identify most established postinfectious autoimmune associations, likely reflecting rarity, heterogeneity, and diagnostic complexity. These findings begin to describe the range of real-world health care databases to evaluate postinfectious neuropsychiatric risk.